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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/06 13:36
Livestock Contracts Trending Higher
Monday has shot another dose of optimism through the livestock futures and
keeps all three markets trading higher.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
General Comments
Continuing to rally and thrive into Monday's noon hour -- the livestock
complex is continuing to rally off last week's positive movement and has all
three livestock contracts trending higher. The fundamental support for the
market rally is slim to none but as the market keeps inching higher and higher,
time will hold the answers as to how true and substantial this move is.
September corn is up 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 327.23 points and NASDAQ is up 220.59
points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts jump into the new week full of energy and optimism.
August live cattle are up $0.72 at $100.12, October live cattle are up $1.22 at
$103.90 and December live cattle are up $1.02 at $106.95. Showlists this week
are higher in Kansas, somewhat higher in Texas and somewhat lower in Nebraska
and Colorado. Now with the July Fourth holiday behind us, the market will start
to test the summer fat cattle market immensely. Hot days, a surplus of cattle
and questions regarding third quarter beef demand are going to greatly affect
the cash cattle market in the near future.
Even though last week was shortened for the holiday, cash cattle trade was
huge. The National Weekly Direct Slaughter -- Negotiated Purchases shared that
last week's sales totaled 127,258 head. Of that 118,448 head are committed for
delivery in the next two weeks, and the remaining 8,810 head are for delivery
in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.38 ($205.06) and select down
$2.27 ($196.49) with a movement of 117 loads (64.44 loads of choice, 17.15
loads of select, 18.86 loads of trim and 16.68 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts haven't forgot about the big price move made last
week before Thursday's close and have picked up that support and are carrying
optimism into this week's marketplace. August feeders are up $0.92 at $135.80,
September feeders are up $0.90 at $136.72 and October feeders are up $0.75 at
$137.40. Feeder cattle prices have been truly commendable throughout the early
summer sales which came as a surprise to most but as prices keep creeping
higher and higher, the feeder cattle contracts could be subject to downward
pressure when cash cattle prices continue to develop for lower money.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex; though not as aggressive as the cattle contracts, is
trending higher into the new week throughout the entire complex. July lean hogs
are up $0.42 at $45.15, August lean hogs are up $0.45 at $49.65 and October
lean hogs are up $0.82 at $49.17. Watching how aggressively packers slaughter
hogs through the next couple of months will greatly determine how much longer
we have to chat about the backlog of hogs. But with the next big holiday being
Labor Day, the marketplace is going to need household consumer demand to be
extraordinary, and hopefully restaurants can continue to stay open with
concerns about more COVID-19 cases popping up.
The projected lean hog index for 7/1/2020 is down $0.26 at $45.02 and the
actual index for 6/30/2020 is up $0.04 at $45.28. Hog prices are unavailable on
the National Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission problems. Pork
cutouts totaled 217.42 loads with 189.92 loads of pork cuts and 27.49 loads of
trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.59, $68.05.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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